As a Zionist who knows that the world was 100% correct in 1947 when the United Nations voted to create the State of Israel, and a small d democrat who knows the world and Iranian citizens would be better off if Iran’s ruling Islamic theocracy was replaced by a ruling secular democracy, I have a Zionist fear that Israel’s attempt to restore a deterrence which protects Israel will create a war which will harm the State of Israel.
On April 1, 2024, April Fool’s Day, Israel did a foolish thing when it committed a military strike on Iran’s embassy complex in Syria. It was foolish for the following 2 reasons:
1) True Zionism would dictate that Israel’s first priority should be to eliminate the still active direct threat that successfully committed the Oct. 7 atrocity, the most violent attack on the Jewish people since the Holocaust, Hamas, who had no representatives present in Iran’s Syrian embassy complex on April 1st. When questioned about not providing humanitarian aid to prevent disease, famine, and death in Gaza Israel has responded by saying it must have 100% focus on removing Hamas from Gaza, while also protecting itself during its Hamas war period of vulnerability to possible attack from other terrorist groups. So to attack a country not directly involved in the Oct. 7 attack while in the middle of a war with those directly involved with committing the Oct. 7 attack, Hamas, and invite an attack by a 3rd player that Israel claimed it was trying to avoid during its vulnerable period of war with Hamas, was foolish.
2) True Israeli international political pragmatism would dictate that while Israel is at war with Hamas it would commit actions that encourage international support, not commit actions that violate international norms or laws. According to the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, an attack on a country’s diplomatic embassy is a violation of international law. According to the U.S. State Department embassies and consulates have a special status, the immediate area around an embassy and the embassy itself belongs to the country it represents, and no one including representatives of the host country can enter an embassy or embassy complex without permission. Therefore an attack on an embassy or its embassy complex is considered an attack on the country it represents.
Unfortunately Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s wartime cabinet decided to conduct an attack to respond to Iran’s response attack to Israel’s initial attack on Iran’s Syrian embassy complex, pushing the Middle East one step closer to starting a new war Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock
That’s why past Israeli cyber-attacks on Iran’s nuclear program or bombing Iranian military facilities have met little to no international criticism, but a country attacking the diplomatic embassy complex of a country, it is not at war with, is considered to be crossing a red line by the international community. Fortunately despite Israel’s faux pas America and a large part of the world overlooked it and kept their eyes on the ultimate goal, preserving the State of Israel, by participating in the successful defense that prevented 99% of Iran’s retaliatory attack. Now unfortunately, Israel has responded to Iran’s retaliatory strike by committing another attack on Iran, because according to Israel Iran’s retaliatory attack was so powerful Israel has “to restore deterrence” to prevent a future attack from Iran, which when you think about Israel’s restore deterrence logic in response to Iran, it amounts to the type of deterrence that creates war.
Israel’s rationale for striking Iran again is that Iran’s retaliation was so aggressive and overwhelming that it merited a response. In other Israeli words, since Israel started the violence by committing an unprovoked slap on Iran’s shoulder and Iran responded by attempting to deliver a more powerful fist blow to Israel’s face, Israel must now demonstrate a show of strength to make Iran think twice before it attacks Israel again, which is deterrence that creates war not prevents it. From Iran’s point of view, Israel started the hostilities by committing an unprovoked attack on its diplomats when a state of war did not exist between Iran and Israel, so in response, Iran responded in a way that it thought would provide deterrence and make Israel think twice before it strikes Iran again in the future.
Because Iran gave advance warning President Joe Biden and members of his national security team were able to observe Iran’s response attack on Israel in the Situation Room Pic: AP
Obviously, it was not Iran’s intention to do serious harm to Israel because, in the week preceding Iran’s retaliatory attack, it telegraphed to Israel, America, and others when the attack would occur, that’s why President Biden was able to be in the White House Situation Room as the attack occurred. Iran purposely gave Israel, America, Britain, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia time to prepare their jointly coordinated layered defense that protected Israel. Israel has survived in the Middle East because its Israel Defense Force (IDF) is considered so powerful, that it provides an Israeli deterrence that makes Israel’s neighbors think twice before they attempt any military attack against Israel. Iran’s only intention for its 330 drones, low-flying cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles launched at Israel was to establish an Iranian deterrence that would make Israel think twice before any future attacks on Iran.
Now that Israel has retaliated against Iran’s retaliation, it means Israel is creating a deterrence that encourages war, not a deterrence that discourages war. Israel’s response to Iran’s response is not Israel sending a message of deterrence to Iran to think twice before attacking Israel, Israel’s response to Iran’s response is sending the message that Israel can attack Iran but Iran dares not attack Israel back, which could be received by Iran as a challenge to its dignity and independence, and if Iran does view it as a challenge to its dignity and independence or feel that other countries view it as a challenge, Iran would feel strongly compelled to respond to preserve its status as a major player in the Middle East.
While it’s true Iran responded with more powerful resources than Israel anticipated, thought necessary, or realized Iran was capable of, at the same time Iran saw Israel was able to prevent 99% of Iran’s attack with not only Israeli defense forces but with more international backup than Iran anticipated, thought necessary, or realized Israel was capable of. Israel should have realized that this meant a win-win or deterrence-deterrence for both Israel and Iran, both sides had demonstrated a show of strength to each other that should make each other think twice before attacking each other.
Since Israel’s response attack to Iran’s response attack was effective but did not match the scale of Iran’s response attack, hopefully, Iran will not feel the need to respond with another response attack, and hopefully, Israel will not forget that during Iran’s response attack, America shot down more of the 330 drones, low-flying cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles than Israel did. Should Iran, unfortunately, decide to respond with another attack of that scale, it’s doubtful Iran will give anyone a heads-up before it launches another round of 330 drones, low-flying cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel, which definitely will start a new war in the Middle East, all because Israel wanted to show deterrence but instead started a war!!!