Democrats would be foolish to take comfort in the recent Washington Post/ABC News public opinion poll of Donald Trump’s first 100 days. Under normal circumstances Trump’s job approval numbers alone would mean the political death of any other administration before it had a chance to get started. But this is no ordinary administration and it won’t die, it defies normal political logic because of the “Trump Effect”.
Donald Trump is the first President in history to have an underwater job approval number in the first 100 days. In every key metric the poll shows he flunks the test:
* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 53% disapprove
* Do you think Trump is in touch with the concerns of most people in the United States? 58% say out of touch
* Do you think Trump understands the problems of people like you? 61% say no
* Would you say Trump has accomplished a great deal during that time? 56% say not much too little of nothing
* Is Trump keeping most of his major campaign promises?
Only 44% say he is
* Has the kind of judgment it takes to serve effectively as president? 56% say no
* Has the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president? 59% say no
* Is honest and trustworthy? 58% say no
* Can be trusted in a crisis? 52% say no
With numbers like these one would wonder how Donald Trump’s Presidency can survive. It can and will survive because a phenomenon has developed around Donald Trump that was first discovered in 1982. It was named the “Bradley Effect” which is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes.
Like in the Tom Bradley polls most Trump voters are embarrassed to admit who they support. His controversial Muslim travel bans and his anti-immigration policies embarrass them but speak strongly to their concerns.
Support not based on racism but fear of unknown
They want a diverse America free of racism but are secretly deeply worried about the changing reality around them. America is turning browner and in a democratic country where the standard is majority rules, the fear is a new majority could change traditional values and customs.
This is where the “Trump Effect” comes in. Trump voters know his rhetoric and policies are extreme maybe even unconstitutional, but they feel if he will insult handicapped journalist and John McCain he will certainly speak up for white America. They know in their hearts he can’t bring back the coal and manufacturing jobs he’s promised too. They know and don’t care that he really has no consistent conservative or liberal political ideology.
To most of them “Make America Great Again” is code for make sure America stays controlled by white Americans so values and customs don’t change. They have no problem with America changing colors racially, they just don’t want the rules to change.
His politically incorrect rhetoric signals to them that he won’t be politically correct when it comes to preserving the traditional America they know.
So Democrats settle in for what might be an 8 year run because the “Trump Effect” is in effect, there are many voters out there that claim they don’t support Donald Trump but will secretly vote for him every chance they get.
